향후 호주부동산가격을 놓고 내기..ㅋㅋ 2008.12.01 - Christhills
작성자
bizperth
작성일
2020-08-29 11:54
조회
189
웨스턴시드니대학 교수 스티브 킨(Steve Keen)과
맥콰리그룹 경제연구원 로리 로버슨(Rory Robertson)이 내기을 했습니다.
앞으로 부동산가격 40% 폭락할거라는 스티브와
그건 1%의 가능성이라는 로리는
내기에서 진쪽은 만년설이 가득한 호주 최고봉에 티셔츠만 입고 등반하기로 했습니다.
ㅋㅋㅋ
‘Rate Cut’ Rory Bets Australia’s Highest Peak on House Prices
By Jacob Greber
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aBGpZWYKLiWE&refer=australia
Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- An Australian academic predicting a collapse in house prices has made a bet with Macquarie Group Ltd. economist Rory Robertson that commits the loser to walk from Canberra to the top of the nation’s highest mountain.
A forecast by University of Western Sydney Associate Professor Steve Keen that house prices will collapse by 40 percent, double the current plunge in the U.S., has a 1 percent chance of being correct, Sydney-based Robertson said today.
Keen, who made headlines in Australia and overseas with his forecast that the nation may be facing a depression, and last month sold his inner-Sydney home, accepted Robertson’s challenge.
If house prices fall by less than 20 percent, he will embark on the 230 km (143 mile) hike from the nation’s capital to Mount Kosciuszko, a 2,228-meter peak that is snowcapped for much of the year.
“Moreover, the loser must wear a tee-shirt saying: ‘I was hopelessly wrong on home prices! Ask me how’,” said Robertson, dubbed “Rate Cut Rory” after accurately forecasting the central bank would cut rates in 1996, betting against the market.
“I expect to record an easy win within two years,” Robertson added. “That’s because falls in Australia-wide home prices will be limited by our lack of overbuilding, our much more disciplined mortgage market, and especially, the Reserve Bank’s ability to drive mortgage rates lower.”
Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens has cut the benchmark lending rate by two percentage points since early September to a 3 1/2-year low of 5.25 percent, the biggest reduction since a recession in 1991.
Stevens will reduce the overnight cash rate target on Dec. 2 by at least half a point, according to all 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
‘Fit Enough’
The decline in house prices will be measured using Bureau of Statistics figures starting from the second quarter of 2008, “peak to trough,” Keen said in a telephone interview.
“That could take 15 years,” Keen, 55, added. “I’ve got a feeling I’ll still be fit enough and I hope he is.”
While Robertson, 42, said he “never says never,” Keen’s forecast of a 40 percent drop in Australian house prices “effectively requires a meltdown” of the nation’s financial system.
Australian house prices fell 1.8 percent in the third quarter from the three months through June, the biggest decline since 1978.
Household debt has almost doubled since 1999 to around 160 percent of incomes, a higher ratio than in the U.S. and U.K., according to AMP Capital Investors. The median national house price soared about 140 percent in the same period.
To contact the reporter for this story: Jacob Greber in Sydney at jgreber@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 27, 2008 18:11 EST
맥콰리그룹 경제연구원 로리 로버슨(Rory Robertson)이 내기을 했습니다.
앞으로 부동산가격 40% 폭락할거라는 스티브와
그건 1%의 가능성이라는 로리는
내기에서 진쪽은 만년설이 가득한 호주 최고봉에 티셔츠만 입고 등반하기로 했습니다.
ㅋㅋㅋ
‘Rate Cut’ Rory Bets Australia’s Highest Peak on House Prices
By Jacob Greber
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aBGpZWYKLiWE&refer=australia
Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- An Australian academic predicting a collapse in house prices has made a bet with Macquarie Group Ltd. economist Rory Robertson that commits the loser to walk from Canberra to the top of the nation’s highest mountain.
A forecast by University of Western Sydney Associate Professor Steve Keen that house prices will collapse by 40 percent, double the current plunge in the U.S., has a 1 percent chance of being correct, Sydney-based Robertson said today.
Keen, who made headlines in Australia and overseas with his forecast that the nation may be facing a depression, and last month sold his inner-Sydney home, accepted Robertson’s challenge.
If house prices fall by less than 20 percent, he will embark on the 230 km (143 mile) hike from the nation’s capital to Mount Kosciuszko, a 2,228-meter peak that is snowcapped for much of the year.
“Moreover, the loser must wear a tee-shirt saying: ‘I was hopelessly wrong on home prices! Ask me how’,” said Robertson, dubbed “Rate Cut Rory” after accurately forecasting the central bank would cut rates in 1996, betting against the market.
“I expect to record an easy win within two years,” Robertson added. “That’s because falls in Australia-wide home prices will be limited by our lack of overbuilding, our much more disciplined mortgage market, and especially, the Reserve Bank’s ability to drive mortgage rates lower.”
Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens has cut the benchmark lending rate by two percentage points since early September to a 3 1/2-year low of 5.25 percent, the biggest reduction since a recession in 1991.
Stevens will reduce the overnight cash rate target on Dec. 2 by at least half a point, according to all 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
‘Fit Enough’
The decline in house prices will be measured using Bureau of Statistics figures starting from the second quarter of 2008, “peak to trough,” Keen said in a telephone interview.
“That could take 15 years,” Keen, 55, added. “I’ve got a feeling I’ll still be fit enough and I hope he is.”
While Robertson, 42, said he “never says never,” Keen’s forecast of a 40 percent drop in Australian house prices “effectively requires a meltdown” of the nation’s financial system.
Australian house prices fell 1.8 percent in the third quarter from the three months through June, the biggest decline since 1978.
Household debt has almost doubled since 1999 to around 160 percent of incomes, a higher ratio than in the U.S. and U.K., according to AMP Capital Investors. The median national house price soared about 140 percent in the same period.
To contact the reporter for this story: Jacob Greber in Sydney at jgreber@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 27, 2008 18:11 EST
전체 0
댓글을 남기려면 로그인하세요.
전체 456
번호 | 제목 | 작성자 | 작성일 | 추천 | 조회 |
공지사항 |
이곳에선 2006년~2008년 다음 세계n 호주/뉴질랜드방 회원분들의 글을 보관하고 있습니다.
bizperth
|
2020.08.25
|
추천 0
|
조회 1978
|
bizperth | 2020.08.25 | 0 | 1978 |
395 |
향후 호주부동산가격을 놓고 내기..ㅋㅋ 2008.12.01 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 189
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 189 |
394 |
호주부동산에 관련된 경제이론(하이만 민스키) 2008.12.01 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 210
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 210 |
393 |
루퍼트머독(Rupert Murdoch)이 말하는 호주교육 수준? 2008.11.23 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 168
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 168 |
392 |
뭐 답변은 아니구여 주말이라 생각나는대로 주저리..(교육) 2008.11.21 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 197
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 197 |
391 |
호주경제? 질문이 정확히 뭔지 모르겠지만,, 2008.11.20 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 218
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 218 |
390 |
마지막으로 하나더,,센터링크의 수요증가.. 2008.11.19 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 175
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 175 |
389 |
호주정부의 악성루머 단속.. 2008.11.19 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 174
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 174 |
388 |
돈줄 죄는 호주은행들... 2008.11.19 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 173
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 173 |
387 |
17년간의 날들은 지나고 시작되는 호주의 경기침체.. 2008.11.19 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 204
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 204 |
386 |
저는 한국학생들(남여모두)이 이랬음 좋겠습니다.^^ 2008.11.16 - Christhills
bizperth
|
2020.08.29
|
추천 0
|
조회 188
|
bizperth | 2020.08.29 | 0 | 188 |